FOREST · BETWEEN THE POSTS

The goalkeeper studio

What reached the keeper. What stayed out. How it compares.

Live dataset · matches through 2026-11-02. Reads the latest published shared data; refreshes automatically. Source updated 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC. Latest selected appearance: 2026-10-31. 1 of 9 selected matches have unresolved shot reconciliation. Reported totals and independently available actions remain visible.

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Forest goalkeeperSeasonFromToInclude penalties

Stats scope

Combined matches pools the selected period. Single match applies to every Forest card, graphic, shot and download. League comparisons and trends use combined matches; passing connections use a single match.

Combined matches · Matz Sels · 2026/2027 · 9 appearances · penalties excluded

Reported match totals

Provider summary counts · all penalties included · goals conceded include own goals. These counts are independent of the shot list; they are not used to fill missing shots or calculate the shot-derived rates below.

Reported saves179/9 appearances reported

Reported goals conceded129/9 appearances reported

Reported xGoT faced8.818/9 appearances reported

Reported goals prevented-2.198/9 appearances reported · provider definition

Reconciled shot-stopping analysis

8/9 appearances fully reconciled. These rates and league comparisons use complete matching shot evidence only. The shot maps and list additionally show 5 individually attributed shots from incomplete matches, clearly labelled.

Actual save %54.5%

Expected save %65.4%

Goals prevented-2.38

Saved / faced12 / 22

The model expected 14.4 saves; Matz Sels made 12. That is 10.8 percentage points below expected. Post-shot xG considers the shot after it was struck. It estimates difficulty; it does not say a keeper definitely should have saved an individual shot.

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Shots faced · what moved the numbers?

Known, individually attributed shots on target, using the keeper, dates and penalty setting above. Pre-shot xG measures the chance before the finish; post-shot xGoT measures the scoring probability after the shot. A low-quality chance can still produce a difficult save.

Impact = xGoT − goal conceded. Saving a 0.70 xGoT shot adds +0.70 goals prevented. Conceding a 0.05 xGoT shot subtracts −0.95. This explains the statistical contribution, not whether the keeper was at fault. Low xGoT does not measure shot speed.

Shots to showOrder shots by

27 of 27 shots shown · shown-shot contribution: -2.17 goals prevented. 1 matches contribute partial shot evidence. This is not a full-period total when reconciliation is incomplete. Missing values stay unavailable.

Matz Sels · data through 2026-11-02 · excluding penalties. Low chance: xG < 0.10; low shot probability: xGoT ≤ 0.10.
Match / minute	Shooter / outcome	Chance xG	Shot xGoT	Expected save %	Impact · goals prevented
2026-09-12 · Aston VillaPartial match evidence74′ · away	Alysson EdwardGoal conceded	0.07Low chance	0.08Low probability	92.0%	-0.92Lowers total
2026-08-22 · Leeds United88′ · home	Anton StachGoal conceded	0.04Low chance	0.08Low probability	92.0%	-0.92Lowers total
2026-10-18 · Arsenal80′ · home	Noni MaduekeGoal conceded	0.03Low chance	0.16	84.0%	-0.84Lowers total
2026-09-19 · Coventry City55′ · home	Jay DasilvaGoal conceded	0.28	0.16	84.0%	-0.84Lowers total
2026-08-29 · Liverpool82′ · away	Víctor MuñozGoal conceded	0.06Low chance	0.47	53.0%	-0.53Lowers total
2026-10-11 · Crystal Palace45+4′ · away	Jefferson LermaGoal conceded	0.35	0.57	43.0%	-0.43Lowers total
2026-10-23 · Ipswich Town41′ · away	Julio EncisoGoal conceded	0.18	0.65	35.0%	-0.35Lowers total
2026-10-31 · Brentford76′ · away	Igor ThiagoGoal conceded	0.25	0.66	34.0%	-0.34Lowers total
2026-10-11 · Crystal Palace41′ · away	Daichi KamadaGoal conceded	0.34	0.71	29.0%	-0.29Lowers total
2026-10-11 · Crystal Palace59′ · away	Yéremi PinoGoal conceded	0.35	0.80	20.0%	-0.20Lowers total
2026-08-29 · Liverpool60′ · away	Alexander IsakGoal conceded	0.84	0.99	1.0%	-0.01Lowers total
2026-10-23 · Ipswich Town28′ · away	Julio EncisoSaved	0.03Low chance	0.01Low probability	99.0%	+0.01Lifts total
2026-09-19 · Coventry City16′ · home	Brandon Thomas-AsanteSaved	0.05Low chance	0.02Low probability	98.0%	+0.02Lifts total
2026-08-29 · Liverpool39′ · away	Florian WirtzSaved	0.06Low chance	0.02Low probability	98.0%	+0.02Lifts total
2026-08-22 · Leeds United47′ · home	Brenden AaronsonSaved	0.01Low chance	0.03Low probability	97.0%	+0.03Lifts total
2026-10-11 · Crystal Palace45+3′ · away	Tyrick MitchellSaved	0.01Low chance	0.04Low probability	96.0%	+0.04Lifts total
2026-09-19 · Coventry City52′ · home	Loum TchaounaSaved	0.04Low chance	0.04Low probability	96.0%	+0.04Lifts total
2026-10-23 · Ipswich Town26′ · away	Jaden Philogene-BidaceSaved	0.07Low chance	0.05Low probability	95.0%	+0.05Lifts total
2026-09-12 · Aston VillaPartial match evidence8′ · away	Ian MaatsenSaved	0.06Low chance	0.07Low probability	93.0%	+0.07Lifts total
2026-09-12 · Aston VillaPartial match evidence32′ · away	Ross BarkleySaved	0.02Low chance	0.13	87.0%	+0.13Lifts total
2026-09-12 · Aston VillaPartial match evidence73′ · away	Ibrahim MbayeSaved	0.02Low chance	0.18	82.0%	+0.18Lifts total
2026-10-11 · Crystal Palace59′ · away	Jørgen Strand LarsenSaved	0.49	0.29	71.0%	+0.29Lifts total
2026-10-11 · Crystal Palace56′ · away	Jefferson LermaSaved	0.14	0.37	63.0%	+0.37Lifts total
2026-08-22 · Leeds United70′ · home	Tarik MuharemovićSaved	0.09Low chance	0.43	57.0%	+0.43Lifts total
2026-10-11 · Crystal Palace8′ · away	Jørgen Strand LarsenSaved	0.47	0.53	47.0%	+0.53Lifts total
2026-08-29 · Liverpool74′ · away	Konstantinos TsimikasSaved	0.04Low chance	0.54	46.0%	+0.54Lifts total
2026-09-12 · Aston VillaPartial match evidence7′ · away	Victor Nilsson LindelöfSaved	0.44	0.75	25.0%	+0.75Lifts total

Definitions, coverage and limitations

Source: Pitch, snapshot 4ece338437bd708d6abb, built 2026-11-03. Seasons cover recorded Premier League appearances, not a complete all-competition career. Own goals and non-keeper outcomes follow the source eligibility gates. Unreconciled matches stay out of complete-match shot-derived rates. Reported totals and directly attributed eligible shots are presented separately, with their own coverage; missing values are never zero.

Save %: 100 × saves / reconciled shots on target. Higher means better recorded stopping performance.

Expected save %: 100 × (shots on target − post-shot xG) / shots on target. Difficulty context, not a performance ranking.

Save % above expected: Save percentage minus expected save percentage. Higher means better recorded stopping performance.

Goals prevented: Post-shot xG minus goals conceded on the same reconciled shots. Higher means better recorded stopping performance.

Goals prevented /100 SOT: 100 × goals prevented / reconciled shots on target. Higher means better recorded stopping performance.

Save percentage above expected and goals prevented per 100 SOT are mathematically equivalent. They are alternative units for the same signal, not independent evidence. Expected saves = SOT − post-shot xG. No shots faced means rates are unavailable.

Read the post-shot xG methodology overview. This explains the concept; the values here remain the saved Pitch feed, not a newly fitted model.

Matches with incomplete shot reconciliation

2026-09-12 · Aston Villa: save count mismatch.

22 eligible shots in this selection. Goal-face and pitch maps use only known coordinates. Aerial and passing totals use their own recorded-match coverage. No passing trajectories, unobserved claims or keeper errors are inferred.