PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · EXPERIMENTAL
Three ways to replay the chances
Compare xG, xGoT and xAG points on the same recorded games.
← All alternative tablesAll recorded shots, including penalties.
Post-shot values for both teams. Reflects where their shots went.
xG credited to the pass creating a shot. Excludes penalties and shots without a credited creator.
MATCHED GAMES · SAME POISSON METHOD
How the rankings change
Large number = sample rank. Below it = modelled points per game. Shared ranks use values rounded to two decimals.
| ClubCovered / played | xGRank · pts/game | xGoTRank · pts/game | xAGRank · pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|
 BrentfordBrentford3 / 9 games | 12.29 | 32.23 | 11.95 |
 ArsenalArsenal4 / 9 games | 41.80 | 22.27 | 21.76 |
 BournemouthBournemouth4 / 9 games | 91.43 | 51.71 | 31.72 |
 ChelseaChelsea4 / 9 games | 61.62 | 91.38 | 41.61 |
 Manchester CityMan City6 / 9 games | 51.78 | 42.02 | 51.58 |
 Nottingham ForestForest4 / 9 games | 31.87 | 151.07 | 51.58 |
 Leeds UnitedLeeds5 / 9 games | 71.55 | 61.58 | 71.49 |
 Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton4 / 9 games | 22.00 | 12.35 | 81.45 |
 Newcastle UnitedNewcastle5 / 9 games | 151.04 | 200.74 | 91.43 |
 Manchester UnitedMan United7 / 9 games | 121.28 | 161.00 | 101.40 |
 Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace5 / 9 games | 141.08 | 170.88 | 111.33 |
 LiverpoolLiverpool6 / 9 games | 81.49 | 81.45 | 121.31 |
 Ipswich TownIpswich4 / 9 games | 181.02 | 141.12 | 131.29 |
 Hull CityHull City3 / 9 games | 151.04 | 111.25 | 141.13 |
 SunderlandSunderland5 / 9 games | 131.16 | 131.23 | 151.12 |
 Tottenham HotspurTottenham5 / 9 games | 111.31 | 101.35 | 161.11 |
 Coventry CityCoventry5 / 9 games | 151.04 | 121.24 | 171.01 |
 Aston VillaAston Villa5 / 9 games | 200.86 | 190.80 | 180.92 |
 EvertonEverton4 / 9 games | 101.33 | 61.58 | 180.92 |
 FulhamFulham2 / 9 games | 190.96 | 180.81 | 200.80 |
Method, limitations and the exact games covered
For each game and each measure, treat the two teams’ totals as independent Poisson scoring means. Sum all scoreline probabilities to calculate 3 × win probability + draw probability, then pool points across covered games. This is a retrospective approximation with no fitted or calibrated forecasting parameters.
The same games and calculation are used in all three columns. Existing xPts tables elsewhere use individual-shot probabilities: these Poisson comparison values will differ. xAG totals cannot reconstruct the exact distribution of assisted-shot chances. It does not capture promising passes that never became shots.
Coverage varies by club and may be selective; points per game does not correct for different opponents. xG–xAG also includes penalty and unassisted-shot exclusions. Removing chances from both teams can increase or decrease modelled points. Small samples and shared rounded ranks should not be read as definitive strength rankings.
Metric definition: PitchAPI creation documentation. No changes to the existing forward forecast.
- 21 Aug 2026 · Arsenal v CoventryIncluded
- 22 Aug 2026 · Brentford v TottenhamIncluded
- 22 Aug 2026 · Everton v Crystal PalaceIncluded
- 22 Aug 2026 · Hull City v Man UnitedIncluded
- 22 Aug 2026 · Ipswich v SunderlandIncluded
- 22 Aug 2026 · Forest v LeedsIncluded
- 23 Aug 2026 · Brighton v Aston VillaIncluded
- 23 Aug 2026 · Man City v BournemouthIncluded
- 23 Aug 2026 · Newcastle v LiverpoolIncluded
- 24 Aug 2026 · Fulham v ChelseaIncluded
- 28 Aug 2026 · Crystal Palace v Man CityIncluded
- 29 Aug 2026 · Bournemouth v EvertonIncluded
- 29 Aug 2026 · Coventry v Hull CityIncluded
- 29 Aug 2026 · Liverpool v ForestIncluded
- 29 Aug 2026 · Tottenham v NewcastleIncluded
- 30 Aug 2026 · Chelsea v BrightonIncluded
- 30 Aug 2026 · Leeds v BrentfordIncluded
- 30 Aug 2026 · Man United v IpswichIncluded
- 30 Aug 2026 · Sunderland v FulhamIncluded
- 31 Aug 2026 · Aston Villa v ArsenalIncluded
- 4 Sep 2026 · Ipswich v LiverpoolIncluded
- 5 Sep 2026 · Brentford v SunderlandxAG unavailable
- 5 Sep 2026 · Brighton v LeedsxAG unavailable
- 5 Sep 2026 · Fulham v Crystal PalacexAG unavailable
- 5 Sep 2026 · Hull City v Aston VillaxAG unavailable
- 5 Sep 2026 · Man City v CoventryxAG unavailable
- 5 Sep 2026 · Newcastle v BournemouthxAG unavailable
- 5 Sep 2026 · Forest v TottenhamShot correction cannot be reconciled to xAG
- 6 Sep 2026 · Arsenal v ChelseaxAG unavailable
- 6 Sep 2026 · Everton v Man UnitedIncluded
- 12 Sep 2026 · Aston Villa v ForestxAG unavailable
- 12 Sep 2026 · Bournemouth v BrentfordxAG unavailable
- 12 Sep 2026 · Chelsea v Hull CityxAG unavailable
- 12 Sep 2026 · Crystal Palace v IpswichxAG unavailable
- 12 Sep 2026 · Liverpool v FulhamxAG unavailable
- 12 Sep 2026 · Sunderland v ArsenalIncluded
- 12 Sep 2026 · Tottenham v EvertonxAG unavailable
- 13 Sep 2026 · Coventry v BrightonIncluded
- 13 Sep 2026 · Man United v Man CityIncluded
- 14 Sep 2026 · Leeds v NewcastleIncluded
- 18 Sep 2026 · Brentford v ChelseaIncluded
- 19 Sep 2026 · Brighton v ArsenalxAG unavailable
- 19 Sep 2026 · Everton v IpswichxAG unavailable
- 19 Sep 2026 · Newcastle v Hull CityxAG unavailable
- 19 Sep 2026 · Forest v CoventryxAG unavailable
- 19 Sep 2026 · Tottenham v Aston VillaIncluded
- 20 Sep 2026 · Bournemouth v LiverpoolIncluded
- 20 Sep 2026 · Fulham v Man UnitedxAG unavailable
- 20 Sep 2026 · Leeds v Crystal PalaceIncluded
- 20 Sep 2026 · Man City v SunderlandIncluded
- 10 Oct 2026 · Arsenal v LeedsxAG unavailable
- 10 Oct 2026 · Aston Villa v BrentfordxAG unavailable
- 10 Oct 2026 · Chelsea v BournemouthxAG unavailable
- 10 Oct 2026 · Ipswich v FulhamxAG unavailable
- 10 Oct 2026 · Man United v TottenhamIncluded
- 10 Oct 2026 · Sunderland v BrightonxAG unavailable
- 11 Oct 2026 · Crystal Palace v ForestIncluded
- 11 Oct 2026 · Hull City v EvertonIncluded
- 11 Oct 2026 · Liverpool v Man CityIncluded
- 12 Oct 2026 · Coventry v NewcastleIncluded
- 17 Oct 2026 · Brentford v LiverpoolxAG unavailable
- 17 Oct 2026 · Everton v ChelseaxAG unavailable
- 17 Oct 2026 · Fulham v Hull CityxAG unavailable
- 17 Oct 2026 · Man City v IpswichxAG unavailable
- 17 Oct 2026 · Newcastle v Aston VillaIncluded
- 18 Oct 2026 · Bournemouth v SunderlandIncluded
- 18 Oct 2026 · Brighton v Crystal PalaceIncluded
- 18 Oct 2026 · Leeds v Man UnitedIncluded
- 18 Oct 2026 · Forest v ArsenalxAG unavailable
- 19 Oct 2026 · Tottenham v CoventryIncluded
- 23 Oct 2026 · Ipswich v ForestIncluded
- 24 Oct 2026 · Arsenal v EvertonxAG unavailable
- 24 Oct 2026 · Aston Villa v Man CityIncluded
- 24 Oct 2026 · Chelsea v TottenhamxAG unavailable
- 24 Oct 2026 · Coventry v FulhamxAG unavailable
- 25 Oct 2026 · Crystal Palace v NewcastlexAG unavailable
- 25 Oct 2026 · Hull City v BrentfordxAG unavailable
- 25 Oct 2026 · Liverpool v BrightonxAG unavailable
- 25 Oct 2026 · Man United v BournemouthxAG unavailable
- 25 Oct 2026 · Sunderland v LeedsxAG unavailable
- 31 Oct 2026 · Aston Villa v FulhamxAG unavailable
- 31 Oct 2026 · Bournemouth v LeedsxAG unavailable
- 31 Oct 2026 · Brentford v ForestxAG unavailable
- 31 Oct 2026 · Chelsea v Man UnitedIncluded
- 31 Oct 2026 · Coventry v SunderlandxAG unavailable
- 31 Oct 2026 · Hull City v IpswichxAG unavailable
- 31 Oct 2026 · Man City v BrightonxAG unavailable
- 31 Oct 2026 · Tottenham v Crystal PalacexAG unavailable
- 1 Nov 2026 · Liverpool v ArsenalIncluded
- 2 Nov 2026 · Newcastle v EvertonxAG unavailable